Analysis: Deconstructing Romney’s Florida Latino sweep

Romney took home the majority of the Latino vote in the Florida primary. But will his performance with the primarily-Cuban voting bloc translate to other states? (Flickr:Dave Delay)

By JORDAN FABIAN
Channel: Politics

TAMPA, Fla. — The Florida GOP presidential primary officially kicked off the battle for the Latino vote in 2012 and Mitt Romney performed extremely well in his first audition in front of Latino voters.



But the Florida primary is only the first of many tests of Latino political attitudes, and it’s a rather limited one. Should he become the nominee, the road ahead could prove to be much rockier for Romney when it comes to attracting Latino voters.



Romney does deserve credit for his performance with Florida Latino Republicans, whom are largely Cuban-American. The former Massachusetts governor worked to court the Cuban-American GOP establishment for months and he sounded the right tones on the economy and Cuba policy to appeal to his targeted audience.

His efforts paid off.



Early exit polls had Romney winning Latino Republicans in Florida 54-28 percent and his support among Cuban-Americans was close to 60 percent. Fifteen percent of Republican primary voters were Latinos on Tuesday and his 26 point margin with the group (the same margin predicted by last week’s Univision News/ABC News/Latino Decisions poll) went a long way in helping him beat Gingrich.



Reflective of his failed 2008 campaign, Romney was utterly unable to connect with even conservative Cuban-American voters in South Florida, the base of Florida’s Latino Republicans. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) crushed him among that group 51-15 percent.



Romney knew he would have to perform better with Latinos this year in order to win the primary in Florida. In addition to his courtship with the Diaz-Balarts and his frequent anti-Castro jabs, he name checked “Hispanic entrepreneurs” in his victory speech here in Tampa, “who thought they had achieved the American Dream and are now seeing it disappear.”



“Romney had a strong following among Cuban-Americans in Florida, especially Cuban immigrants, and this contributed to his large victory in Florida,” said Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions.

 
Not only did his sweeping victory in Florida restore his momentum in the GOP horse race, it has Republicans encouraged they can win over Latinos in Florida and other parts of the country against President Obama in 2012. But that task will prove much more difficult.



It’s true that Florida is the most diverse primary state yet and Romney performed well and it’s also true that Obama is less popular among Latinos than he was in 2008. But that doesn’t mean they’ve drifted over to the GOP.

Other Latino subgroups who did not play a big role in the Florida primary will have a much larger say in other key general election swing states with large Latino populations, such as Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. 

While Mexican-American voters only comprise nine percent of the general Latino electorate in Florida, they are 54 percent of Latino voters in the country as a whole. All Latinos of all backgrounds list jobs and the economy as their number one issue, but immigration is a much bigger factor for Mexican-American voters than it is for Cubans, who enjoy special asylum if they reach U.S. shores. Puerto Ricans, the second-largest Latino group in Florida, are U.S. citizens.

Thus Gingrich’s strategy of attacking Romney as “anti-immigrant” was not effective in the Florida primary.

But immigration could be Romney’s Achilles Heel when it comes to attracting more Latino support nationwide, which could prove to be a necessary task for any candidate because 12.2 million Latinos are expected to vote in November, the largest number ever. 

In an effort to win over conservatives in early primary states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Romney outflanked his opponents on immigration. But those efforts (“self-deportation,” veto the DREAM Act, Kobach endorsement) have left him with some clunkers in his record that could turn off Latinos from the GOP, should he become the nominee.

There’s already evidence of that trend emerging. The Univision News/ABC News poll showed Romney trailing Obama 67-25 percent nationwide. The last Republican to win the White House, George W. Bush in 2004, won close to 40 percent of the Latino vote.

“Gov.Romney is having a hard time connecting with Latino voters in a general election match-up against President Obama.  Since the start of the Republican primary, Romney’s unfavorable ratings among Latinos have gone up by 10 points,” wrote Barreto. “His opposition to the DREAM Act will certainly hurt him.”

Sure, Romney looked to moderate his tone in Florida.  But will Latino voters around the country simply forget Romney’s earlier lines on immigration? Judging by the signs President Obama’s team is sending, probably not. Even Romney’s chief opponent, Newt Gingrich, labeled him “anti-immigrant” during the Florida contest.

But most telling could be the fact that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) declined to endorse Romney in Florida despite being aggressively courted by the Romney camp.

“Mr. Bush has made clear in television interviews and in conversations with friends that he is troubled by the sharpening tenor of the race, particularly on immigration,” the New York Times wrote on Sunday. “He voiced his concern directly to Mr. Romney, two people close to him said, urging him to moderate his oratory and views to avoid a collapse of support among Hispanic voters in the general election.”

“The question will not go away, and will haunt Republicans for the remainder of the race if Romney wins the Republican nomination. President Barack Obama’s campaign will surely make the most of it,” Andreas Oppenheimer wrote in the Miami Herald on Tuesday.

“I think if [Romney] is used to the same kind of reception in other states that he had in Little Havana, I don’t think that’s going to happen,” said Mario H. Lopez, president of the conservative Hispanic Leadership Fund.

Because of that, Lopez surmised that Romney’s team would only have a “fraction of the Latino efforts they have in other states that they have in Florida.” But even if that’s the case and Romney virtually concedes Latino votes in the southwest, there is no guarantee he could rely on his January success with Florida Latinos in November.

Whereas Cubans comprised the majority of Latino voters in Florida as recently as the last decade, their share of the overall Latino vote in Florida has been reduced to around 32 percent. Latinos from Puerto Rico and Central and South America who are friendlier to Democrats. And the Cuban voting bloc itself is beginning to fray. Sixty-five percent of Cubans between the ages of 18-29 voted for Obama in 2008.

Case and point, despite McCain’s victory in the primary with strong Latino support, he lost in the general to Obama by three points. Obama’s margin of victory with Latinos? Fifty-seven percent to 42 percent.

Obama is actually under performing compared to his 2008, which has made Republicans optimistic it could narrow the gap,  but he’s still beating Romney 50-40 percent among Latinos in the Sunshine State. With 29 electoral votes up for grabs, Romney’s team would like that margin to be narrower.

Romney’s strong performance on Tuesday was a sign that he’s edging closer to compete in the general election. But if and when he gets there, he’ll have a real challenge on his hands when it comes to the Latino vote.