Poll: Immigration law looms large over Arizona race
Unlike the rest of the country, immigration is a vote-moving issue in Arizona, which holds a Republican presidential primary next week. (Flickr: xomiele)
By JORDAN FABIAN
Channel: Politics
Immigration is not considered a top issue this year for voters nationwide, but this is not the case in Arizona, according to a new poll released Wednesday.The state’s controversial SB 1070 immigration law could be a significant vote-moving issue the general election in November and serve as a key litmus test issue for Republicans in next week’s presidential primary there.
Sixty-seven percent of likely Republican primary voters say support for 1070 would make them more likely to support a candidate, a NBC News/Marist survey shows. Fortunately for them, most of the GOP presidential field is already well-positioned to satisfy Arizona Republicans on the immigration issue; Mitt Romney (the Arizona front runner), Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich all support the law. Only Ron Paul has in the past expressed reservations about the law.
And among registered voters, a broader sample more representative of the general electorate in November, a 45-percent plurality says they would be more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who supports SB 1070, 31 percent said it would not affect their vote and only 20 percent said it would make it less likely.
That number doesn’t bode well for President Obama, who is looking to pull an upset in November to become the first Democrat since 1996 to win Arizona in a presidential contest. The strategic factor underpinning that goal is the state’s rapidly-expanding Latino population that has been mobilized against SB 1070.
But so far, that has not been enough to push Obama over the top in the Grand Canyon State.
Obama’s approval on the immigration issue is weak at 31-60 percent and his overall job approval rating is underwater at 38-51 percent among registered voters.
On the contrary to Obama’s strategy, the latest poll numbers could give the Republican nominee encouragement that using the immigration crackdown law as a wedge issue against the president could pay dividends in Arizona.
But as we have written in the past, pursuing that strategy could prove costly for Republicans in their ultimate goal to win back the White House. Doubling down on support for the 1070 law, which is deeply unpopular with Latino voters, could alienate large swaths of them in key southwestern swing states like New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado as well as with independent Latino voters in Florida.
Considering the numbers among likely GOP primary voters, Republican candidates have strong incentive to do just that at the debate tonight in Mesa, Ariz.
That scenario could continue to play out if things go as planned for Obama’s campaign team, which wants to at least run competitively in Arizona in order to make Republicans spend time, money and political capital defending a state that’s typically in the bag for them.
So far, that plan is on target considering the head-to-head match ups between the president and the two men most likely to be the Republican nominee. Among registered voters, Obama is running only five percentage points behind Romney 40-45 percent and three percentage points behind Santorum, 42-45 percent.
The poll is based on phone interviews of 3,048 Arizonans conducted between Feb. 19-20. The sample of 2,487 registered voters has a margin of error is two percentage points and the sample of 767 likely GOP primary voters is 3.5 percentage points.
